| Even if you are not a political junkie like I am, you will | | | | polls (or political polls in general) will offer two main |
| still probably find yourself glued to your TV set on | | | | criticisms of them. The first is: "They've never asked |
| election night. Obviously, you'll be waiting to find out | | | | me." In actuality, very few voters are ever contacted |
| whether President George W. Bush will be elected or | | | | by pollsters. Only a very small sample of voters is |
| if Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts will | | | | needed to get a reasonably accurate result, provided it |
| become our 44th President. Will everything you see | | | | is random enough and varied enough among all |
| and hear that night be interesting? Will it even make | | | | demographic groups, geographic areas, etc. To use an |
| sense to you? Well, if all you are interested in is finding | | | | analogy that I've often heard, you don't need to drink |
| out who wins, you may be in for a long and boring | | | | the whole glass of tea to find out whether or not it's |
| night. Volumes of information will be presented that | | | | sweet. Just a taste will due, assuming the glass has |
| night before a final winner is declared. However, if you | | | | been stirred properly. The other criticism is: "They ask |
| know a few things to look for, all of that stuff might | | | | intentionally misleading and confusing questions." This is |
| make a lot more sense and actually be interesting as | | | | quite true of many political polls. However, the main |
| well. | | | | question asked during exit poling is: "For whom did you |
| For one thing, you need to be aware that there's only | | | | vote?". I wonder which part of that question people |
| going to be a passive emphasis on the national popular | | | | wouldn't understand. |
| vote, i.e., the total amount of votes cast nationally for | | | | As states are called, their electoral votes are placed |
| each candidate. That's because it doesn't determine | | | | into one candidate's column. Also, look for each news |
| who wins - the electoral votes do. In every state | | | | organization to utilize a map of the United States, |
| except Maine, Nebraska, and perhaps Colorado (more | | | | which starts out with each state depicted as white. As |
| on that later), the winner of that state receives all of its | | | | a state is called for Bush, its color is changed to red; as |
| electoral votes. Maine awards them by congressional | | | | a state is called for Kerry, its color is changed to blue; |
| district, with the other two going to that state's overall | | | | hence, the red states and blue states. Look for |
| winner. Nebraska awards its electoral votes | | | | Kentucky to be the first state called. That state closes |
| proportionally, based on the percentage of the popular | | | | its polls at 6:00 Eastern Time and will almost certainly |
| vote each candidate receives in that state. | | | | fall into Bush's column. Once a candidate reaches 270 |
| The number of electoral votes each state has is | | | | or more electoral votes, he will be declared the winner |
| calculated by adding the number of its congressional | | | | of the election, regardless of the total popular votes or |
| districts to the number of its senators. The number of | | | | how many red or blue states he has earned. |
| congressional districts each state has is based on its | | | | If Bush wins all the states he won in 2000 and no |
| population. The more populous states like California and | | | | more, he will win by a larger margin (277-261) in the |
| Texas have a lot more congressional districts than | | | | electoral college than he won by last time (271-267). |
| more sparsely populated states like Wyoming or | | | | Actually, he could lose one of his smaller states like |
| Vermont. However, every state has at least one | | | | New Hampshire, without picking up one that Gore won, |
| congressional district, no matter how small its | | | | and still win the election. This is because, based on the |
| population. Every state has exactly two senators. | | | | 2000 census, the population has shifted a bit and six |
| Therefore, every state has at least three electoral | | | | congressional seats (and therefore the same amount |
| votes. In addition to all the states, the District of | | | | of electoral votes) have shifted from "Gore" states to |
| Columbia is allotted three electoral votes, even though | | | | "Bush" states. |
| it has no voting members in Congress. | | | | The key states to watch throughout the evening will |
| Many people believe the electoral college, the system | | | | be the so-called "battleground" states. The candidate |
| of casting electoral votes to determine the outcome of | | | | who wins the majority of those states will likely win the |
| the presidential election, is inherently unfair and should | | | | election. By most estimates, these states include New |
| be abolished in favor of a system in which the winner | | | | Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, |
| is determined purely by the national popular vote. Of | | | | Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. Most of |
| course, it would take a Constitutional amendment for | | | | the other states are considered to already be in the |
| that to happen. Therefore, the electoral college is here | | | | column of one candidate or the other. As a general |
| to stay. Even if such amendment could get the | | | | rule, Bush is expected to be strong in the south, |
| required two-thirds margin in the House and Senate, it | | | | southwest, and mountain and prairie west. Kerry looks |
| would never be able to get the required three-quarters | | | | to be strong in the northeast, upper Midwest, and along |
| of the state legislatures. There are too many small | | | | the Pacific coast. I don't see any state further west |
| states that would be staunchly opposed to it, as they | | | | than New Mexico or Colorado being a major decisive |
| feel that the electoral college allows them to be | | | | factor. It is already assumed that California, Oregon, |
| "players" in the presidential election campaign that they | | | | Washington, and Hawaii will all go for Kerry, while |
| would not be in a purely popular vote system. These | | | | Alaska will go for Bush. |
| small states fear that they would be completely | | | | Colorado could prove to be the most controversial this |
| ignored by presidential candidates, without the electoral | | | | time, but only if everything falls right. There is an |
| college. I fear that they are right. | | | | initiative on the Colorado ballot to award its electoral |
| Many states will be "called", i.e., a projected winner of | | | | votes proportionally, instead of awarding all nine of |
| that state will be announced, by news organizations as | | | | them to the winner, as it does now. If passed, this |
| soon as the polls close in those states. This can be | | | | would go into effect immediately with this election. |
| done fairly accurately with the use of exit polls, a | | | | Since the race in Colorado is expected to be close, |
| process by which voters are asked about their | | | | the results of this measure would effectively take four |
| decision as they are exiting their polling places. If the | | | | electoral votes away from the winner of the state and |
| exit polling sample alone from a given state shows a | | | | give them to the loser. Therefore, if the measure |
| clear victory for one candidate, they will call that state | | | | passes and the candidate who wins Colorado loses |
| as soon as its polls close. If the exit polls show that a | | | | the election by less than nine electoral votes, the |
| given state is too close to call, they will wait until | | | | measure will have cost that candidate the election. |
| enough of the actual vote count comes in before | | | | Obviously, a major legal battle would ensue if that |
| calling that state. Exit polls are sometimes wrong, | | | | happened. |
| though. The most infamous example was Florida in | | | | One final item to watch for on election night is the |
| 2000, when it was called for Gore based on exit polling | | | | battle for control of the House and the Senate. The |
| data and some of the actual results. After more of the | | | | Republicans currently hold a slim margin in both houses. |
| actual results started coming in, however, the news | | | | Several key wins, or "pick-ups," by the Democrats |
| organizations soon started to realize things might not | | | | could turn things around in their favor in one house or |
| go in Florida the way they had projected, so they soon | | | | possibly both. Conversely, some pick-ups by the |
| retracted their call and the state ultimately went to | | | | Republicans could increase their margin in one or both |
| Bush. | | | | house. Key races that could go either way will be |
| By the way, people who say they never believe exit | | | | monitored closely throughout the evening. |