| Even if you are not a political junkie like I | | | | result, provided it is random enough and |
| am, you will still probably find yourself | | | | varied enough among all demographic groups, |
| glued to your TV set on election night. | | | | geographic areas, etc. To use an analogy that |
| Obviously, you'll be waiting to find out | | | | I've often heard, you don't need to drink the |
| whether President George W. Bush will be | | | | whole glass of tea to find out whether or not |
| elected or if Senator John F. Kerry of | | | | it's sweet. Just a taste will due, assuming |
| Massachusetts will become our 44th President. | | | | the glass has been stirred properly. The |
| Will everything you see and hear that night | | | | other criticism is: "They ask intentionally |
| be interesting? Will it even make sense to | | | | misleading and confusing questions." This is |
| you? Well, if all you are interested in is | | | | quite true of many political polls. However, |
| finding out who wins, you may be in for a | | | | the main question asked during exit poling |
| long and boring night. Volumes of information | | | | is: "For whom did you vote?". I wonder which |
| will be presented that night before a final | | | | part of that question people wouldn't |
| winner is declared. However, if you know a | | | | understand.As states are called, their |
| few things to look for, all of that stuff | | | | electoral votes are placed into one |
| might make a lot more sense and actually be | | | | candidate's column. Also, look for each news |
| interesting as well.For one thing, you need | | | | organization to utilize a map of the United |
| to be aware that there's only going to be a | | | | States, which starts out with each state |
| passive emphasis on the national popular | | | | depicted as white. As a state is called for |
| vote, i.e., the total amount of votes cast | | | | Bush, its color is changed to red; as a state |
| nationally for each candidate. That's because | | | | is called for Kerry, its color is changed to |
| it doesn't determine who wins - the electoral | | | | blue; hence, the red states and blue states. |
| votes do. In every state except Maine, | | | | Look for Kentucky to be the first state |
| Nebraska, and perhaps Colorado (more on that | | | | called. That state closes its polls at 6:00 |
| later), the winner of that state receives all | | | | Eastern Time and will almost certainly fall |
| of its electoral votes. Maine awards them by | | | | into Bush's column. Once a candidate reaches |
| congressional district, with the other two | | | | 270 or more electoral votes, he will be |
| going to that state's overall winner. | | | | declared the winner of the election, |
| Nebraska awards its electoral votes | | | | regardless of the total popular votes or how |
| proportionally, based on the percentage of | | | | many red or blue states he has earned.If Bush |
| the popular vote each candidate receives in | | | | wins all the states he won in 2000 and no |
| that state.The number of electoral votes each | | | | more, he will win by a larger margin |
| state has is calculated by adding the number | | | | (277-261) in the electoral college than he |
| of its congressional districts to the number | | | | won by last time (271-267). Actually, he |
| of its senators. The number of congressional | | | | could lose one of his smaller states like New |
| districts each state has is based on its | | | | Hampshire, without picking up one that Gore |
| population. The more populous states like | | | | won, and still win the election. This is |
| California and Texas have a lot more | | | | because, based on the 2000 census, the |
| congressional districts than more sparsely | | | | population has shifted a bit and six |
| populated states like Wyoming or Vermont. | | | | congressional seats (and therefore the same |
| However, every state has at least one | | | | amount of electoral votes) have shifted from |
| congressional district, no matter how small | | | | "Gore" states to "Bush" states.The key states |
| its population. Every state has exactly two | | | | to watch throughout the evening will be the |
| senators. Therefore, every state has at least | | | | so-called "battleground" states. The |
| three electoral votes. In addition to all the | | | | candidate who wins the majority of those |
| states, the District of Columbia is allotted | | | | states will likely win the election. By most |
| three electoral votes, even though it has no | | | | estimates, these states include New |
| voting members in Congress.Many people | | | | Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, West |
| believe the electoral college, the system of | | | | Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, |
| casting electoral votes to determine the | | | | and New Mexico. Most of the other states are |
| outcome of the presidential election, is | | | | considered to already be in the column of one |
| inherently unfair and should be abolished in | | | | candidate or the other. As a general rule, |
| favor of a system in which the winner is | | | | Bush is expected to be strong in the south, |
| determined purely by the national popular | | | | southwest, and mountain and prairie west. |
| vote. Of course, it would take a | | | | Kerry looks to be strong in the northeast, |
| Constitutional amendment for that to happen. | | | | upper Midwest, and along the Pacific coast. I |
| Therefore, the electoral college is here to | | | | don't see any state further west than New |
| stay. Even if such amendment could get the | | | | Mexico or Colorado being a major decisive |
| required two-thirds margin in the House and | | | | factor. It is already assumed that |
| Senate, it would never be able to get the | | | | California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii |
| required three-quarters of the state | | | | will all go for Kerry, while Alaska will go |
| legislatures. There are too many small states | | | | for Bush.Colorado could prove to be the most |
| that would be staunchly opposed to it, as | | | | controversial this time, but only if |
| they feel that the electoral college allows | | | | everything falls right. There is an |
| them to be "players" in the presidential | | | | initiative on the Colorado ballot to award |
| election campaign that they would not be in a | | | | its electoral votes proportionally, instead |
| purely popular vote system. These small | | | | of awarding all nine of them to the winner, |
| states fear that they would be completely | | | | as it does now. If passed, this would go into |
| ignored by presidential candidates, without | | | | effect immediately with this election. Since |
| the electoral college. I fear that they are | | | | the race in Colorado is expected to be close, |
| right.Many states will be "called", i.e., a | | | | the results of this measure would effectively |
| projected winner of that state will be | | | | take four electoral votes away from the |
| announced, by news organizations as soon as | | | | winner of the state and give them to the |
| the polls close in those states. This can be | | | | loser. Therefore, if the measure passes and |
| done fairly accurately with the use of exit | | | | the candidate who wins Colorado loses the |
| polls, a process by which voters are asked | | | | election by less than nine electoral votes, |
| about their decision as they are exiting | | | | the measure will have cost that candidate the |
| their polling places. If the exit polling | | | | election. Obviously, a major legal battle |
| sample alone from a given state shows a clear | | | | would ensue if that happened.One final item |
| victory for one candidate, they will call | | | | to watch for on election night is the battle |
| that state as soon as its polls close. If the | | | | for control of the House and the Senate. The |
| exit polls show that a given state is too | | | | Republicans currently hold a slim margin in |
| close to call, they will wait until enough of | | | | both houses. Several key wins, or "pick-ups," |
| the actual vote count comes in before calling | | | | by the Democrats could turn things around in |
| that state. Exit polls are sometimes wrong, | | | | their favor in one house or possibly both. |
| though. The most infamous example was Florida | | | | Conversely, some pick-ups by the Republicans |
| in 2000, when it was called for Gore based on | | | | could increase their margin in one or both |
| exit polling data and some of the actual | | | | house. Key races that could go either way |
| results. After more of the actual results | | | | will be monitored closely throughout the |
| started coming in, however, the news | | | | evening.Terry Mitchell is a software engineer |
| organizations soon started to realize things | | | | from Hopewell, VA. He operates a website, on |
| might not go in Florida the way they had | | | | which he posts commentaries on various |
| projected, so they soon retracted their call | | | | subjects such as politics, technology, |
| and the state ultimately went to Bush.By the | | | | religion, health and well-being, personal |
| way, people who say they never believe exit | | | | finance, and sports. His commentaries offer a |
| polls (or political polls in general) will | | | | unique point of view that is not often found |
| offer two main criticisms of them. The first | | | | in the mainstream media. He rarely misses an |
| is: "They've never asked me." In actuality, | | | | opportunity to assail political correctness |
| very few voters are ever contacted by | | | | and take pot shots at the conventional |
| pollsters. Only a very small sample of voters | | | | foolishness. Mr. Mitchell is also a trivia |
| is needed to get a reasonably accurate | | | | buff. |