A Guide to Election Night for the Non-Political Junkie

Even if you are not a political junkie like I am, you willto get a reasonably accurate result, provided it is
still probably find yourself glued to your TV set onrandom enough and varied enough among all
election night. Obviously, you'll be waiting to find outdemographic groups, geographic areas, etc. To use an
whether President George W. Bush will be elected oranalogy that I've often heard, you don't need to drink
if Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts willthe whole glass of tea to find out whether or not it's
become our 44th President. Will everything you seesweet. Just a taste will due, assuming the glass has
and hear that night be interesting? Will it even makebeen stirred properly. The other criticism is: "They ask
sense to you? Well, if all you are interested in is findingintentionally misleading and confusing questions." This is
out who wins, you may be in for a long and boringquite true of many political polls. However, the main
night. Volumes of information will be presented thatquestion asked during exit poling is: "For whom did you
night before a final winner is declared. However, if youvote?". I wonder which part of that question people
know a few things to look for, all of that stuff mightwouldn't understand.As states are called, their electoral
make a lot more sense and actually be interesting asvotes are placed into one candidate's column. Also,
well.For one thing, you need to be aware that there'slook for each news organization to utilize a map of the
only going to be a passive emphasis on the nationalUnited States, which starts out with each state
popular vote, i.e., the total amount of votes castdepicted as white. As a state is called for Bush, its
nationally for each candidate. That's because it doesn'tcolor is changed to red; as a state is called for Kerry,
determine who wins - the electoral votes do. In everyits color is changed to blue; hence, the red states and
state except Maine, Nebraska, and perhaps Coloradoblue states. Look for Kentucky to be the first state
(more on that later), the winner of that state receivescalled. That state closes its polls at 6:00 Eastern Time
all of its electoral votes. Maine awards them byand will almost certainly fall into Bush's column. Once a
congressional district, with the other two going to thatcandidate reaches 270 or more electoral votes, he will
state's overall winner. Nebraska awards its electoralbe declared the winner of the election, regardless of
votes proportionally, based on the percentage of thethe total popular votes or how many red or blue
popular vote each candidate receives in that state.Thestates he has earned.If Bush wins all the states he
number of electoral votes each state has is calculatedwon in 2000 and no more, he will win by a larger
by adding the number of its congressional districts tomargin (277-261) in the electoral college than he won
the number of its senators. The number ofby last time (271-267). Actually, he could lose one of his
congressional districts each state has is based on itssmaller states like New Hampshire, without picking up
population. The more populous states like California andone that Gore won, and still win the election. This is
Texas have a lot more congressional districts thanbecause, based on the 2000 census, the population
more sparsely populated states like Wyoming orhas shifted a bit and six congressional seats (and
Vermont. However, every state has at least onetherefore the same amount of electoral votes) have
congressional district, no matter how small itsshifted from "Gore" states to "Bush" states.The key
population. Every state has exactly two senators.states to watch throughout the evening will be the
Therefore, every state has at least three electoralso-called "battleground" states. The candidate who
votes. In addition to all the states, the District ofwins the majority of those states will likely win the
Columbia is allotted three electoral votes, even thoughelection. By most estimates, these states include New
it has no voting members in Congress.Many peopleHampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio,
believe the electoral college, the system of castingIowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. Most of
electoral votes to determine the outcome of thethe other states are considered to already be in the
presidential election, is inherently unfair and should becolumn of one candidate or the other. As a general
abolished in favor of a system in which the winner isrule, Bush is expected to be strong in the south,
determined purely by the national popular vote. Ofsouthwest, and mountain and prairie west. Kerry looks
course, it would take a Constitutional amendment forto be strong in the northeast, upper Midwest, and along
that to happen. Therefore, the electoral college is herethe Pacific coast. I don't see any state further west
to stay. Even if such amendment could get thethan New Mexico or Colorado being a major decisive
required two-thirds margin in the House and Senate, itfactor. It is already assumed that California, Oregon,
would never be able to get the required three-quartersWashington, and Hawaii will all go for Kerry, while
of the state legislatures. There are too many smallAlaska will go for Bush.Colorado could prove to be the
states that would be staunchly opposed to it, as theymost controversial this time, but only if everything falls
feel that the electoral college allows them to beright. There is an initiative on the Colorado ballot to
"players" in the presidential election campaign that theyaward its electoral votes proportionally, instead of
would not be in a purely popular vote system. Theseawarding all nine of them to the winner, as it does now.
small states fear that they would be completelyIf passed, this would go into effect immediately with
ignored by presidential candidates, without the electoralthis election. Since the race in Colorado is expected to
college. I fear that they are right.Many states will bebe close, the results of this measure would effectively
"called", i.e., a projected winner of that state will betake four electoral votes away from the winner of the
announced, by news organizations as soon as thestate and give them to the loser. Therefore, if the
polls close in those states. This can be done fairlymeasure passes and the candidate who wins
accurately with the use of exit polls, a process byColorado loses the election by less than nine electoral
which voters are asked about their decision as theyvotes, the measure will have cost that candidate the
are exiting their polling places. If the exit polling sampleelection. Obviously, a major legal battle would ensue if
alone from a given state shows a clear victory forthat happened.One final item to watch for on election
one candidate, they will call that state as soon as itsnight is the battle for control of the House and the
polls close. If the exit polls show that a given state isSenate. The Republicans currently hold a slim margin in
too close to call, they will wait until enough of the actualboth houses. Several key wins, or "pick-ups," by the
vote count comes in before calling that state. Exit pollsDemocrats could turn things around in their favor in
are sometimes wrong, though. The most infamousone house or possibly both. Conversely, some pick-ups
example was Florida in 2000, when it was called forby the Republicans could increase their margin in one
Gore based on exit polling data and some of theor both house. Key races that could go either way will
actual results. After more of the actual results startedbe monitored closely throughout the evening.Terry
coming in, however, the news organizations soonMitchell is a software engineer from Hopewell, VA. He
started to realize things might not go in Florida the wayoperates a website, on which he posts commentaries
they had projected, so they soon retracted their callon various subjects such as politics, technology, religion,
and the state ultimately went to Bush.By the way,health and well-being, personal finance, and sports. His
people who say they never believe exit polls (orcommentaries offer a unique point of view that is not
political polls in general) will offer two main criticisms ofoften found in the mainstream media. He rarely misses
them. The first is: "They've never asked me." Inan opportunity to assail political correctness and take
actuality, very few voters are ever contacted bypot shots at the conventional foolishness. Mr. Mitchell is
pollsters. Only a very small sample of voters is neededalso a trivia buff.