| Even if you are not a political junkie like I am, you will | | | | to get a reasonably accurate result, provided it is |
| still probably find yourself glued to your TV set on | | | | random enough and varied enough among all |
| election night. Obviously, you'll be waiting to find out | | | | demographic groups, geographic areas, etc. To use an |
| whether President George W. Bush will be elected or | | | | analogy that I've often heard, you don't need to drink |
| if Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts will | | | | the whole glass of tea to find out whether or not it's |
| become our 44th President. Will everything you see | | | | sweet. Just a taste will due, assuming the glass has |
| and hear that night be interesting? Will it even make | | | | been stirred properly. The other criticism is: "They ask |
| sense to you? Well, if all you are interested in is finding | | | | intentionally misleading and confusing questions." This is |
| out who wins, you may be in for a long and boring | | | | quite true of many political polls. However, the main |
| night. Volumes of information will be presented that | | | | question asked during exit poling is: "For whom did you |
| night before a final winner is declared. However, if you | | | | vote?". I wonder which part of that question people |
| know a few things to look for, all of that stuff might | | | | wouldn't understand.As states are called, their electoral |
| make a lot more sense and actually be interesting as | | | | votes are placed into one candidate's column. Also, |
| well.For one thing, you need to be aware that there's | | | | look for each news organization to utilize a map of the |
| only going to be a passive emphasis on the national | | | | United States, which starts out with each state |
| popular vote, i.e., the total amount of votes cast | | | | depicted as white. As a state is called for Bush, its |
| nationally for each candidate. That's because it doesn't | | | | color is changed to red; as a state is called for Kerry, |
| determine who wins - the electoral votes do. In every | | | | its color is changed to blue; hence, the red states and |
| state except Maine, Nebraska, and perhaps Colorado | | | | blue states. Look for Kentucky to be the first state |
| (more on that later), the winner of that state receives | | | | called. That state closes its polls at 6:00 Eastern Time |
| all of its electoral votes. Maine awards them by | | | | and will almost certainly fall into Bush's column. Once a |
| congressional district, with the other two going to that | | | | candidate reaches 270 or more electoral votes, he will |
| state's overall winner. Nebraska awards its electoral | | | | be declared the winner of the election, regardless of |
| votes proportionally, based on the percentage of the | | | | the total popular votes or how many red or blue |
| popular vote each candidate receives in that state.The | | | | states he has earned.If Bush wins all the states he |
| number of electoral votes each state has is calculated | | | | won in 2000 and no more, he will win by a larger |
| by adding the number of its congressional districts to | | | | margin (277-261) in the electoral college than he won |
| the number of its senators. The number of | | | | by last time (271-267). Actually, he could lose one of his |
| congressional districts each state has is based on its | | | | smaller states like New Hampshire, without picking up |
| population. The more populous states like California and | | | | one that Gore won, and still win the election. This is |
| Texas have a lot more congressional districts than | | | | because, based on the 2000 census, the population |
| more sparsely populated states like Wyoming or | | | | has shifted a bit and six congressional seats (and |
| Vermont. However, every state has at least one | | | | therefore the same amount of electoral votes) have |
| congressional district, no matter how small its | | | | shifted from "Gore" states to "Bush" states.The key |
| population. Every state has exactly two senators. | | | | states to watch throughout the evening will be the |
| Therefore, every state has at least three electoral | | | | so-called "battleground" states. The candidate who |
| votes. In addition to all the states, the District of | | | | wins the majority of those states will likely win the |
| Columbia is allotted three electoral votes, even though | | | | election. By most estimates, these states include New |
| it has no voting members in Congress.Many people | | | | Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, |
| believe the electoral college, the system of casting | | | | Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. Most of |
| electoral votes to determine the outcome of the | | | | the other states are considered to already be in the |
| presidential election, is inherently unfair and should be | | | | column of one candidate or the other. As a general |
| abolished in favor of a system in which the winner is | | | | rule, Bush is expected to be strong in the south, |
| determined purely by the national popular vote. Of | | | | southwest, and mountain and prairie west. Kerry looks |
| course, it would take a Constitutional amendment for | | | | to be strong in the northeast, upper Midwest, and along |
| that to happen. Therefore, the electoral college is here | | | | the Pacific coast. I don't see any state further west |
| to stay. Even if such amendment could get the | | | | than New Mexico or Colorado being a major decisive |
| required two-thirds margin in the House and Senate, it | | | | factor. It is already assumed that California, Oregon, |
| would never be able to get the required three-quarters | | | | Washington, and Hawaii will all go for Kerry, while |
| of the state legislatures. There are too many small | | | | Alaska will go for Bush.Colorado could prove to be the |
| states that would be staunchly opposed to it, as they | | | | most controversial this time, but only if everything falls |
| feel that the electoral college allows them to be | | | | right. There is an initiative on the Colorado ballot to |
| "players" in the presidential election campaign that they | | | | award its electoral votes proportionally, instead of |
| would not be in a purely popular vote system. These | | | | awarding all nine of them to the winner, as it does now. |
| small states fear that they would be completely | | | | If passed, this would go into effect immediately with |
| ignored by presidential candidates, without the electoral | | | | this election. Since the race in Colorado is expected to |
| college. I fear that they are right.Many states will be | | | | be close, the results of this measure would effectively |
| "called", i.e., a projected winner of that state will be | | | | take four electoral votes away from the winner of the |
| announced, by news organizations as soon as the | | | | state and give them to the loser. Therefore, if the |
| polls close in those states. This can be done fairly | | | | measure passes and the candidate who wins |
| accurately with the use of exit polls, a process by | | | | Colorado loses the election by less than nine electoral |
| which voters are asked about their decision as they | | | | votes, the measure will have cost that candidate the |
| are exiting their polling places. If the exit polling sample | | | | election. Obviously, a major legal battle would ensue if |
| alone from a given state shows a clear victory for | | | | that happened.One final item to watch for on election |
| one candidate, they will call that state as soon as its | | | | night is the battle for control of the House and the |
| polls close. If the exit polls show that a given state is | | | | Senate. The Republicans currently hold a slim margin in |
| too close to call, they will wait until enough of the actual | | | | both houses. Several key wins, or "pick-ups," by the |
| vote count comes in before calling that state. Exit polls | | | | Democrats could turn things around in their favor in |
| are sometimes wrong, though. The most infamous | | | | one house or possibly both. Conversely, some pick-ups |
| example was Florida in 2000, when it was called for | | | | by the Republicans could increase their margin in one |
| Gore based on exit polling data and some of the | | | | or both house. Key races that could go either way will |
| actual results. After more of the actual results started | | | | be monitored closely throughout the evening.Terry |
| coming in, however, the news organizations soon | | | | Mitchell is a software engineer from Hopewell, VA. He |
| started to realize things might not go in Florida the way | | | | operates a website, on which he posts commentaries |
| they had projected, so they soon retracted their call | | | | on various subjects such as politics, technology, religion, |
| and the state ultimately went to Bush.By the way, | | | | health and well-being, personal finance, and sports. His |
| people who say they never believe exit polls (or | | | | commentaries offer a unique point of view that is not |
| political polls in general) will offer two main criticisms of | | | | often found in the mainstream media. He rarely misses |
| them. The first is: "They've never asked me." In | | | | an opportunity to assail political correctness and take |
| actuality, very few voters are ever contacted by | | | | pot shots at the conventional foolishness. Mr. Mitchell is |
| pollsters. Only a very small sample of voters is needed | | | | also a trivia buff. |