| 10 Things To Consider When Handicapping Bowl | | | | preparation, discipline and conduct of the |
| Games.... | | | | players when on the road. #7 - Handicapping |
| | | | the regular season is certainly a little |
| Handicapping bowl games has a few different | | | | easier as you have both teams having played |
| things to consider when trying to beat the | | | | basically the teams within their conference. |
| line. You obviously still have to take your | | | | This makes it easy to compare results against |
| normal statistical handicapping formulas into | | | | common teams. In bowl games you don't have |
| consideration, but there are situations that | | | | that luxury, but comparing the results of |
| are unique to handicapping bowl games. Here | | | | common regular season opponents that do exist |
| are the ones I consider to be important when | | | | is one of my favorite angles for getting an |
| doing your analyzation. #1 - Look for teams | | | | edge in handicapping bowl games. If team A |
| coming into their bowl with momentum...I like | | | | for example has lost two games by an average |
| to look at the last 3 games. Teams coming in | | | | say of 10 points per game to two teams that |
| on winning streaks are more to my favor than | | | | team B has beaten by an average of say 7 |
| teams that have lost their last game or 2 out | | | | points, you most definitely have to figure |
| of 3 of their last 3 games. #2 - Watch for | | | | this into your final prediction. Also in this |
| the "I'd rather be home watching TV" teams. | | | | category, you will want to weigh the |
| These are teams who feel they were slighted | | | | performance of the two teams against teams |
| in the bowl they accepted. Some of the better | | | | that are in bowl games. #8 - Overall |
| teams in the country having to settle for | | | | schedule strength is a very important factor |
| lesser bowl games have a tendency to not even | | | | in handicapping bowl games, especially the |
| want to be there. I't's like an embarrassment | | | | strength of the conference of both teams. A |
| to them and mentally are not prepared with a | | | | team coming from a major conference will |
| winning attitude. #3 - On the other side of | | | | often be matched against a team from a much |
| the coin from #2, watch out for teams who are | | | | overall weaker conference. Playing a full |
| just excited to be there. Some teams who had | | | | schedule of much tougher opponents will give |
| no thoughts of playing in a bowl game at the | | | | a big edge over a team playing their entire |
| beginning of the season have a tendency to | | | | schedule against a lesser conference. #9 - |
| feel their season has been accomplished and | | | | Always give an edge factor to teams that have |
| whether they win or lose doesn't really | | | | a high percentage of spread covers during the |
| matter. They feel the season is already made. | | | | regular season, especially covering the |
| #4 - Look for teams who have "been there, | | | | spread as a underdog. This indicates that |
| done that". There is a lot of hype and | | | | they are playing "up" against the tougher |
| distractions during bowl game week and teams | | | | opponents and have had a lot of value against |
| that have never experienced it may be at a | | | | the line. This will become even more |
| disadvantage when facing a team with bowl | | | | prominent in a big game such as a bowl game. |
| experience. #5 - Look for teams with | | | | #10 - Look for teams that may be in a |
| coaches who have considerable bowl game | | | | revenge situation from the previous bowl |
| experience and especially a winning record in | | | | season. It is not revenge against the team |
| bowl games, this demonstrates an ability to | | | | they are playing but more so to overcome a |
| "win the big game". Experienced coaches have | | | | poor performance from a previous bowl game |
| an edge on preparing their teams for the hype | | | | experience. A team who last year was a first |
| of bowl games over a coach who is a first | | | | time bowl team and got blown away, will have |
| timer. (Continued from previous newsletter) | | | | gained a lot of experience and will be much |
| #6 - Seeing as all bowl games are played on | | | | more prepared and will want to erase the |
| neutral fields, it is really a road game for | | | | stigma from last year. |
| both teams. I like to give an edge to teams | | | | |
| who have had winning records on the road, | | | | As mentioned earlier, you still need to go |
| especially against the spread during the | | | | through the normal statistical routine of |
| regular season. Teams that do not have good | | | | handicapping the game including the |
| road records will have the added problem of | | | | objectives such as injuries, field conditions |
| dealing with all the hype. Bowl experience of | | | | etc….The above are angles that are |
| the coaches also plays a big part in the | | | | primarily unique to handicapping bowl games. |