| 10 Things To Consider When Handicapping Bowl | | | | coaches also plays a big part in the preparation, |
| Games.... | | | | discipline and conduct of the players when on the road. |
| Handicapping bowl games has a few different things | | | | #7 - Handicapping the regular season is certainly a little |
| to consider when trying to beat the line. You obviously | | | | easier as you have both teams having played basically |
| still have to take your normal statistical handicapping | | | | the teams within their conference. This makes it easy |
| formulas into consideration, but there are situations that | | | | to compare results against common teams. In bowl |
| are unique to handicapping bowl games. Here are the | | | | games you don't have that luxury, but comparing the |
| ones I consider to be important when doing your | | | | results of common regular season opponents that do |
| analyzation. #1 - Look for teams coming into their bowl | | | | exist is one of my favorite angles for getting an edge |
| with momentum...I like to look at the last 3 games. | | | | in handicapping bowl games. If team A for example |
| Teams coming in on winning streaks are more to my | | | | has lost two games by an average say of 10 points |
| favor than teams that have lost their last game or 2 | | | | per game to two teams that team B has beaten by |
| out of 3 of their last 3 games. #2 - Watch for the "I'd | | | | an average of say 7 points, you most definitely have |
| rather be home watching TV" teams. These are | | | | to figure this into your final prediction. Also in this |
| teams who feel they were slighted in the bowl they | | | | category, you will want to weigh the performance of |
| accepted. Some of the better teams in the country | | | | the two teams against teams that are in bowl games. |
| having to settle for lesser bowl games have a | | | | #8 - Overall schedule strength is a very important |
| tendency to not even want to be there. I't's like an | | | | factor in handicapping bowl games, especially the |
| embarrassment to them and mentally are not | | | | strength of the conference of both teams. A team |
| prepared with a winning attitude. #3 - On the other | | | | coming from a major conference will often be |
| side of the coin from #2, watch out for teams who | | | | matched against a team from a much overall weaker |
| are just excited to be there. Some teams who had no | | | | conference. Playing a full schedule of much tougher |
| thoughts of playing in a bowl game at the beginning of | | | | opponents will give a big edge over a team playing |
| the season have a tendency to feel their season has | | | | their entire schedule against a lesser conference. #9 - |
| been accomplished and whether they win or lose | | | | Always give an edge factor to teams that have a high |
| doesn't really matter. They feel the season is already | | | | percentage of spread covers during the regular |
| made. #4 - Look for teams who have "been there, | | | | season, especially covering the spread as a underdog. |
| done that". There is a lot of hype and distractions | | | | This indicates that they are playing "up" against the |
| during bowl game week and teams that have never | | | | tougher opponents and have had a lot of value against |
| experienced it may be at a disadvantage when facing | | | | the line. This will become even more prominent in a big |
| a team with bowl experience. #5 - Look for teams | | | | game such as a bowl game. #10 - Look for teams |
| with coaches who have considerable bowl game | | | | that may be in a revenge situation from the previous |
| experience and especially a winning record in bowl | | | | bowl season. It is not revenge against the team they |
| games, this demonstrates an ability to "win the big | | | | are playing but more so to overcome a poor |
| game". Experienced coaches have an edge on | | | | performance from a previous bowl game experience. |
| preparing their teams for the hype of bowl games | | | | A team who last year was a first time bowl team and |
| over a coach who is a first timer. (Continued from | | | | got blown away, will have gained a lot of experience |
| previous newsletter) #6 - Seeing as all bowl games | | | | and will be much more prepared and will want to |
| are played on neutral fields, it is really a road game for | | | | erase the stigma from last year. |
| both teams. I like to give an edge to teams who have | | | | As mentioned earlier, you still need to go through the |
| had winning records on the road, especially against the | | | | normal statistical routine of handicapping the game |
| spread during the regular season. Teams that do not | | | | including the objectives such as injuries, field conditions |
| have good road records will have the added problem | | | | etc….The above are angles that are primarily |
| of dealing with all the hype. Bowl experience of the | | | | unique to handicapping bowl games. |